That begins for Republicans next Monday in Iowa and the following week in New Hampshire. The two states will start a process that will culminate with a Republican convention in July in Milwaukee and a Democratic convention in August in Chicago.
In some ways, the die seems cast: a rerun of 2020 pitting President Biden against former president Donald Trump, a contest viewed with little enthusiasm by the majority of Americans. But there are many months and events between now and the general election — and the possibility always of a surprise.
A few questions frame the first phase of the election year and, with input from Republican and Democratic strategists and others, a consensus view of the overall trajectory of the election exists. On some specific questions, however, Republicans and Democrats diverge in their views.
Big issues and big consequences are on the ballot in 2024, and they will remain at the center of the choices for voters. But for the next weeks at least, the focus will be on who wins and who loses and by how much.
Does anyone not named Trump have a chance in the GOP primary?
It’s the most significant question of the early part of the 2024 campaign, and one we’ll get some real insight on, if not a definitive answer, in just two weeks’ time after the Iowa caucuses next Monday and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23.
Trump is the overwhelming favorite, to state the obvious. He’s at 50 percent or above in polling averages in virtually every state, bar New Hampshire. He’s north of 60 percent nationally, leading by nearly 50 points. The lead is historic for a primary without an incumbent, and no candidate has rallied from such a deficit to win the nomination in the modern primary era.
Any hope for the others would seem to depend on the race’s unprecedented dynamics.
But if there is a path for another candidate, it’s exceedingly narrow and will require major developments in one direction: against Trump. Still, even the biggest X factor — Trump’s legal problems — has so far served only to rally Republicans behind him.
Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley appears to be the likeliest usurper, and she is banking hard on a strong showing in New Hampshire that could recast the race. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has steadily faded into third position, but he also appears best-suited to pick up Trump’s supporters if Trump were to somehow collapse.
Longtime GOP strategist and lobbyist Ed Rogers cited one difference between now and 2016: “Trump has a core group of professionals that have built a substantial campaign operation in all of the early states, and they already have the campaign infrastructure for a national campaign.” In 2016, Rogers noted, Trump’s campaign was mostly “an airplane and a Twitter feed.”
Others emphasized that Trump’s built-in base is difficult if not impossible to win over. No other candidates have been able to strike the tricky balance between appealing to both “Never Trump” Republicans and those who like Trump but could vote against him.
“Ultimately,” said Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, who has worked to defeat Trump in the 2024 primary, “you can’t beat something with nothing.”
What are the outcomes in Iowa and New Hampshire that would matter?
The most common complaint about the nominating process is the outsize role afforded to Iowa and New Hampshire, the states with the first caucuses and primary, respectively. Democrats have downgraded both, but for Republicans, the emphasis on the two states is as pronounced as ever.
Trump holds a commanding lead in Iowa and a strong lead in New Hampshire. In Iowa, DeSantis and Haley have been battling each other for second, while Haley is Trump’s strongest challenger in New Hampshire. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie is a non-factor in Iowa and has put all his hopes into New Hampshire.
Though many strategists believe that Trump will win both states, perhaps handily (in which case the nomination could be over), the margins and the order of finish will be closely watched.
A third-place finish in Iowa would effectively end DeSantis’s presidential ambitions for this year and perhaps beyond. Alternatively, were he to run second behind Trump, and by only single digits, his campaign could be rejuvenated.
A weak third for Haley would blunt her momentum heading into her best state currently, New Hampshire. Her home state, South Carolina, where she was governor for six years, favors Trump. A solid second for Haley in Iowa, however, would give her the boost she needs to challenge Trump in New Hampshire, which has surprised and disappointed front-runners in the past.
But she would need help from her rivals. Would either DeSantis or Christie quit the race before New Hampshire to help her defeat Trump there? And could she then win in South Carolina? “She’s got to beat Trump somewhere,” Republican pollster Whit Ayres said, “and if she can’t beat him in her home state, it’s hard to imagine where she could beat him.”
“Given Trump’s ballot strength, Haley or anyone would need the equivalent of an inside straight in poker to win” said Sara Fagen, a Republican strategist.
What will Iowa and New Hampshire tell us about Biden’s standing, given that he’s not competing?
Under Biden’s direction, the Democratic National Committee blew up its past nominating process, rearranging the order of the first states to vote and relegating Iowa and its caucuses to a later spot on the calendar.
As a result, Democrats in Iowa will not make a presidential choice on caucus night next week, and Biden will not be on the New Hampshire primary ballot eight days later. Democrats will officially start their process in South Carolina on Feb. 3, followed by Nevada on Feb. 6.
The president will be a non-player in Iowa, a state whose Democratic Party has fallen on hard times. In New Hampshire, the president’s allies have mounted a write-in effort to assure that he wins more votes than the two little-known Democrats who are running, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson.
Most Democrats who offered views for this article say Iowa and New Hampshire will say nothing of note about the president’s strengths or weaknesses as a general-election candidate or about fissures within the party.
“His opponents will try to claim a moral victory based on a meager share of the vote, but the reality is that there is no Democratic primary,” Democratic strategist Tom Bonier said.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake added that, while there is some disaffection toward Biden among Democratic general election voters, “Primary Dems are completely united. The best thing that can happen for Biden is that Trump early on puts this away so the contest and contrast is real and present every day.”
Republicans see things differently. Jai Chabria, a Republican strategist in Ohio, said that while the early states won’t say much about Biden’s overall standing, “What it will do is dull his campaign senses. This White House seems especially out of touch with what’s going on in America.”
Republicans said Biden’s showing in New Hampshire could be lackluster and that it would be a sign of the limited enthusiasm for his candidacy. Ayres said the effect of Biden’s drawing up a nominating calendar guaranteed to protect him from any possible challenges will result in the party’s nominating someone whom many Americans see as too old — and with a vice president, Kamala D. Harris, for whom there is equally limited enthusiasm.
Biden’s challenge in these first months will be to find a voice and a message that begins to address the questions and doubts shared by people who have little regard for Trump.
What issues define the Republican nominating contest? Or is it mostly about personality?
This isn’t entirely a trick question. If you watched any of the Republican debates — and if you did, you qualify as a political junkie — you know that issues were discussed in all of them. Candidates disagreed with one another on a variety.
How restrictive should state or national prohibitions on abortion be? How should Republicans talk about that issue? Should the United States continue to send substantial aid and assistance to Ukraine? What is the right posture for toughening policy toward China? And throughout, immigration, immigration, immigration.
But if Haley and DeSantis and Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy have used their debate minutes to try to differentiate themselves from one another on some of these issues, there’s been far less time spent drawing sharp contrasts with Trump, the candidate they all are trying to defeat. All of them would say they’ve tried to do that, but in general there is little genuine disagreement with the policies Trump espoused as president, from the border to tax cuts that favored the wealthiest to overturning Roe v. Wade.
Which means that this Republican nominating contest continues to be all about Trump and personality. As Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik said, “The only issue that matters in the Republican nomination contest is Donald Trump.”
If there is any doubt about that, scroll back to the summer of 2020 just before the Republican convention. Republicans decided not even to write a platform — a clear signal that Trump set the issue agenda. And many Republicans of varying stripes think Trump did a good job on issues when he was in office and that the economy was better than they say it is now.
“The issue for Republicans is whether they want to stand behind Trump and reward him for the Supreme Court and his policies in his previous term, or do they want to turn the page and direct support to a younger candidate who will continue his policies,” Tom Davis, a former congressman from Virginia, said.
Trump has issued various videos this past year outlining things he would do in another term, although what has drawn the most attention and alarmed many people is what he has said about how he would use the powers of the office to go after enemies and adversaries. But those supporting Trump are doing so because they are drawn to his strongman personality, and he enjoys a cult of personality unlike anyone else in recent presidential politics.
Lake made this observation: “He uses issues to illustrate his personality and style of leadership.”
What are the key legal issues to watch?
The biggest subplot in the election is Trump’s legal fate. Early 2024 will feature a number of Trump legal cases that could have pivotal effects on the race — both practical and political.
Trump faces 91 felony counts across four trials, including two separate indictments for alleged election subversion and one for withholding classified documents after leaving the White House.
He also faces civil lawsuits for financial fraud and sexual assault, both of which he’s already been found liable for.
And then there are the issues the Supreme Court will or may yet take up. They include whether states can kick Trump off the ballot for violating the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause and whether Trump has immunity from criminal charges for actions taken as president.
The big factors, politically, would seem to be the criminal trials, though it’s not certain how many he’ll face before the election. The earliest ones could begin in March. The classified documents trial could be delayed from its May date. Ayres described that Florida case as the most legally compelling, “since it involves provable behavior and voters can put themselves in the position of a defendant and say, ‘Yeah, I’d be serving time for that.’”
Polls suggest that a felony conviction in one of the cases could take a small but decisive number of voters out of Trump’s camp.
Before that, we could get key rulings of a practical nature. The 14th Amendment cases involve whether Trump is qualified to serve as president given his actions surrounding the Capitol insurrection. The immunity case, if courts rule in Trump’s favor, could negate the federal Jan. 6 case.
“The biggest issue to watch around all the legal ones is timing,” Democratic strategist Maria Cardona said. “Will Trump see the inside of a courtroom before or during the general election?”
What is the nature of the anti-Trump contingent in the GOP?
The next few weeks could be decisive for what constitutes the anti-Trump cohort.
Trump critics are badly outnumbered in the GOP. For someone like Haley, winning their support is necessary, if wholly insufficient.
But Trump’s performance could go a long way toward determining whether this tiny wing will even have a pulse — and the will to keep trying to wrest the party back from him.
An overwhelming Trump victory would come on top of his allies’ increasingly consolidating power in the House and Senate GOP conferences. It would also come despite the party apparently — if briefly — pushing for a break with Trump after a disappointing 2022 election.
When asked what happens to anti-Trump Republicans if Trump wins big in Iowa and New Hampshire, one Trump-critical GOP strategist said, “We’d become Wrangel Island Republicans. … The movement would largely be extinct and irrelevant.” The reference is to a remote Russian island where woolly mammoths lived for thousands of years after dying off elsewhere.
Former Virginia congresswoman Barbara Comstock, another GOP Trump critic, said elected Republicans would “totally collapse to Trump.”
The big test will come in New Hampshire, a state where the primary electorate would seem less aligned with Trump and his brand of politics than elsewhere.
“They’ll fracture” if Trump wins big, a New Hampshire GOP strategist said of anti-Trump forces. “A few will jump on the Trump train. Some will pick up their ball and go home. Some will continue to make money off of being ‘Republicans in exile.’ And a very few smart ones will thoughtfully begin to lay groundwork for 2028.”
How much do immigration and the Gaza war divide Democrats — and hurt Biden?
Biden already had problems with support and enthusiasm from key segments of the Democratic base. And two issues, in particular, appear to loom large.
One is immigration. A border surge has drawn even many Democratic voters to embrace a harder-line approach to the issue. Biden is entertaining a deal with Republicans that could appeal to the political middle but might alienate more left-leaning parts of his party.
Perhaps the bigger issue is the war in Gaza. It has split the Democratic Party nearly in half on a matter involving great passions. The left is again expressing reservations about Biden, given his near-unconditional public support for Israel.
As troubling for Biden is that the most pro-Palestinian groups tend to be the very groups he was having the most significant problems with, including young and Black voters. In Michigan, for example, with its substantial Arab American population, the issue could be enough of a wedge to cost him the state in a very close race.
“The war in Gaza could have a significant impact on support for Biden as younger voters in particular could decide to either support a third-party candidate or not vote,” Sosnik said. “The issue of immigration is more likely to hurt Biden with independents.”
Both issues could have major general-election implications, with the next few months proving pivotal.
Will what happens in the next few months matter for the general election?
Across party lines and even within the two major parties, there is disagreement about whether the early months of this year will have a significant impact on the fall election. One view holds that nothing other than a major surprise early this year will reshape a Biden-versus-Trump contest.
Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson reinforced that view. “The more it’s clear that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, the more that Democratic voters will accept that reality and affirm that they are voting for him as he’s the best alternative.”
Republican Longwell said that the emergence of the two leaders as party standard-bearers will focus the attention of voters who have not closely followed politics over the past year, leading to a sharpening of the contours of the general election.
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said three things bear watching: the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the economy and “how much further Trump is degraded by growing awareness of his many crimes, his escalating illiberalism and extremism.”
Republicans added to the list the situation on the U.S.-Mexico border and the status of the legal cases against Trump. If Trump is convicted in one of the big cases before the Republican convention, will the party go ahead and nominate a felon to lead them into the fall campaign?
“Polls show a conviction does sink him,” Comstock, said, “although I think he loses anyway once swing voters see his orange face and his whining, screeching voice for six months.”
One major unknown, given that the president is 81 and Trump is 77, is the well-being of the candidates. A catastrophic health incident for either would quickly reshape the race and possibly force someone to step aside.
The other unknown is how third-party candidates could affect voters’ choices. If the nominations are settled by early March, after the Super Tuesday contests, and voters are looking at a Biden-Trump rematch, will they look for alternatives among various third-party candidates, many of whom are currently struggling to qualify for state ballots?
“A Trump-Biden race will be a race to the bottom,” Davis said, “which opens up the possibility of a meaningful third party actually catching lightning in a bottle.”