Analysis

Haley gets her ‘two-person race’ with Trump. It doesn’t look promising.

With DeSantis out, we should have a clear picture of the race when New Hampshire votes Tuesday.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 21, 2024
Analysis

Haley’s ‘too many lies’ attack on Trump is too little, too late

Trump’s opponents seem to be willing to call out his lies only when they involve them personally. And that self-serving approach has hamstrung any efforts to turn the page.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 19, 2024
Analysis

The House GOP’s growing dilemma on the immigration bill

Republicans seem to be previewing arguments for why it all might fall apart. But Senate Republicans have put the focus squarely on the House GOP.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 19, 2024
Analysis

How racist was our country? Take a look at the numbers.

As Nikki Haley doubles down on saying the United States has never been racist, here’s a look at where we were in the relatively recent past.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 18, 2024
Analysis

How Democrats undermine their own anti-Trump message

The White House has apologized for the DNC’s gratuitous statement on Asa Hutchinson. But it wasn’t the only discordant message from a party that has pitched Trump as a singular threat.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 18, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s unsubtle crusade to cast foes as less American comes for Haley

The playbook is strikingly familiar. He has used virtually the same formula against Barack Obama and Kamala D. Harris.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 17, 2024
Analysis

5 takeaways from the Republican Iowa caucuses

Breaking down Trump’s big win, what second place means, and the key numbers.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 15, 2024
Analysis

Surprises do happen in early primaries. How much have they mattered?

There is some precedent for primaries turning out quite different from what was expected — including with Trump. But Trump’s opponents would need that and a whole lot more.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 15, 2024
Analysis

DeSantis prepares to go down swinging — at Fox News

DeSantis is going after Fox for catering to Trump. It’s a well-founded allegation, but it’s also the result of plenty of people (including DeSantis) treating Trump with kid gloves.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 12, 2024
Analysis

Frigid weather is rare for Iowa caucuses. Here’s what it could mean.

The temperature when the caucuses start is expected to be minus-6, with a wind chill of minus-27.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 12, 2024
Analysis

Chris Christie’s gift to Nikki Haley

Even the Trump campaign’s memo spinning the news of Christie’s withdrawal suggests that Haley could benefit.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 11, 2024
Analysis

The winners and losers of the Republican debate in Iowa

The debate featured only Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Here’s our recap of the hits and misses.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 11, 2024
Analysis

Another GOP impeachment push. Another struggle to isolate an offense.

Alejandro Mayorkas might become the first Biden official to be impeached by House Republicans. But as with President Biden, the actual high crime or misdemeanor is apparently tough to pin down.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 10, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s legal flip-flops get their day in court

Trump is no stranger to adjusting his legal analysis to suit his purposes. And on Tuesday, an appeals court cast a spotlight on it.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 9, 2024
Analysis

How close is Nikki Haley in New Hampshire?

Two new polls offer different verdicts, with one showing her within single digits. Let’s break them down.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 9, 2024
Analysis

The enthusiasm gap shadowing Biden

Democrats remain far less enthusiastic about Biden than Republicans are about Trump. And more than at any point in the 21st century — including 2020 — they say their vote is about the other guy.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 8, 2024
Analysis

2 key points on Trump’s lawyer suggesting Justice Kavanaugh owes Trump

Despite Alina Habba’s cleanup attempt, Trump has made his feelings clear on the subject. It would also seem to put Kavanaugh in a box.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 5, 2024
Analysis

Could the Supreme Court actually disqualify Trump?

A look at the ins and outs — and the views of those who suggest the court could surprise us.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 4, 2024
Analysis

Trump lawyers’ doozy of a filing on voter fraud

Prosecutors have argued that Trump knowingly promoted false vote-fraud claims. Now his legal team is also advancing them, even though such claims have been repeatedly debunked.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 3, 2024
Analysis

The limits of Trump’s Jan. 6 revisionism

A new poll shows Trump’s efforts to cast Jan. 6 in more sympathetic terms has worked -- but largely just with those inclined to back him. More broadly, it’s still a significant 2024 liability.

By Aaron BlakeJanuary 2, 2024