Given the shifts and reversals and changes that have reshaped Donald Trump’s rhetoric over the past eight years, you would be forgiven for forgetting that his 2016 presidential campaign was constructed on a foundation of targeting immigrants.
In the years since, he’s returned to this theme over and over, in his language and his policy. It is essential to his politics — and, data published on Friday by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows, is a central point of disagreement between Republicans who strongly support Trump and those who don’t.
The line between those groups is drawn somewhat differently in the poll (conducted by Ipsos) than you might expect. Trump Republicans were those who say they viewed Trump very favorably, a group that constitutes about half the party. Non-Trump Republicans in this context are those who didn’t hold that view, including those who view him merely favorably. In other words, Trump Republicans aren’t just those who plan to vote for him, it’s those who (at least in September 2023 when the poll was conducted) said they had strongly favorable opinions.
So how do the groups compare when considering immigration? The Chicago Council poll asked respondents whether they thought that the increasing number of people from different races and nationalities made the country better. More than half of respondents overall said it did. Among non-Trump Republicans, only 40 percent held that view, but it was still higher than the 23 percent who said that diversity makes America worse.
Among Trump Republicans, those numbers were flipped, with 44 percent saying diversity made America worse.
Unsurprisingly, therefore, Trump Republicans were the only group more likely to say that legal immigration should be reduced, with two-thirds of them holding that view. Non-Trump Republicans were more likely than Americans overall to support reducing legal immigration, but they were still more likely to say levels should be maintained as they are.
The poll offered respondents a choice of four options when considering how the country should address immigrants who are in the country without authorization. Two included a pathway to citizenship, either with or without a penalty and a waiting period. Another option was to allow them to stay with no more than work permits. The fourth option was that they be deported.
Only among Trump Republicans was that fourth one the most popular option. A majority of non-Trump Republicans favored providing a pathway to citizenship.
The poll also offered an array of possible events over the next 10 years and asked respondents to determine whether each posed a critical threat to the United States. Trump Republicans were much more likely to identify the possibilities as a critical threat than were non-Trump Republicans, a pattern that held true for every possibility except climate change.
Trump Republicans were also nearly 30 points more likely than non-Trump Republicans to say that the increase in immigrants and refugees posed a critical threat. (This comports with other recent polling.) The divide between the two groups on that issue was double the next highest issue, belief that China’s strength as a world power posed a critical threat.
Nine in 10 Trump Republicans called increased migration a critical threat, the highest percentage among members of that group among all of the possibilities. Overall, only 42 percent of respondents described increased immigration as a critical threat.
The Chicago Council found wide support for using the military to address immigration, including nearly half of respondents saying that the military should be deployed at the border to stop new entries and over half supporting using the military to battle Mexican drug cartels. Again, though, no group was more supportive of these ideas than Republicans who view Trump very favorably.
Were you asked whether Trump Republicans would prove to be the most hostile to immigration, you likely would have assumed they were. After all, Trump’s politics have been rooted in the issue since the beginning of his national political career.
What’s remarkable is the size of the divide between these two halves of the party, with the most fervent supporters of the former president offering the most support for his harshest proposals.