As the Washington Wizards approach game No. 41 on Saturday and it becomes appropriate to hand out midseason grades, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to say, in academic parlance, the team flunked its first semester.
Yet despite their record and fatal allergy to playing good defense, members of the team — from players and coaches to multiple people in the front office — feel as if the franchise is in a better place than it has been in previous years.
“Even though we’re not having a great season and [there are] people struggling and we’re still trying to get in rhythm, I feel like everybody’s still so supportive and happy, and we’re there for each other,” said Deni Avdija, the 23-year-old forward who happens to be the longest-tenured Wizard. He was one of several players who described the locker room as the most cohesive and congenial he has ever experienced.
The organization, led by Monumental Basketball President Michael Winger and General Manager Will Dawkins, did not plan on being a high-performing basketball club at square one of this rebuild. Nor did it plan on being quite this bad. But amid the team’s obvious roster shortcomings and marquee offseason acquisition Jordan Poole’s underperformance, Wizards leaders see progress on the court and count many small yet important details, such as locker room chemistry, as wins.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the Wizards have done in a few critical categories as they reach the season’s midpoint, with some key statistics highlighted in each.
Offense
Offensive rating: 111.7, 25th in the league
Assist ratio: 19.5, eighth in the league
Pace (possessions per game): 103.35, first in the league
Offense is not the Wizards’ problem. Washington has capable scorers, even if it is thin on playmakers, and the team generally plays fluidly with solid ball movement, hence the assist ratio (the percentage of a team’s possessions that end with an assist). The Wizards are second in the league in points in the paint, which is in part because their breakneck pace has generated success in transition, all of which the new front office counts as a win. Being able to generate offense quickly was a major on-court priority at the outset of the season, and the Wizards do that often — they’re fourth in the league in field goal attempts (12.7 per game) in the first six seconds of the shot clock.
Now, are those shots always the best ones? No. The Wizards get caught too often playing hero ball or operating at the mercy of the other team’s defense. The Wizards can play good offense, it’s just not often as efficient as it could be, which accounts for their low offensive rating.
Defense
Defensive rating: 120.9, 29th in the league
Rebounding percentage: 44.5, 30th in the league
Opponent turnovers per game: 14.8, tied for fifth in the league
Defense is the Wizards’ biggest problem — and it will be a difficult thing to fix in the second half of the season unless Winger and Dawkins bring in a group of defensive-minded players before next month’s trade deadline.
Washington is undersized and has a dearth of both skilled one-on-one defenders and players who prioritize defense, which makes for atrocious team defense. Cataclysmic rebounding has cost the Wizards plenty of games already, and starting center Daniel Gafford is too often left stranded under the basket to get beat up.
But the Wizards do see growth in this department, even if it’s not going to start winning them games soon. Coach Wes Unseld Jr. and the front office will note that by their metrics, players are getting to the right spots more often. Being active defensively was made a focal point by the front office, which is why it is proud of the number of turnovers the Wizards force (which also has to do with their pace of play).
Aside from rebounding, Washington’s most glaring flaw is simply effort, which in one way can be measured in its being ranked 29th in the league with 4.5 loose balls recovered per game.
Player development
Corey Kispert’s usage rate: from 14.1 in 2022-23 to 19.6 in 2023-24
Deni Avdija’s effective field goal percentage: from 49.7 in 2022-23 to 54.9 in 2023-24
Bilal Coulibaly’s three-point percentage: 38.8
Again, it might not win them games anytime soon, but the category the Wizards have the most victories in is probably player development. Winger and Dawkins vowed at the start of the season to be laser focused on growing the games of their young players, and both Unseld and his players mention the increased amount of time the coaching staff spends on player development and the increased level of detail players receive about individual metrics.
Individual growth is noticeable: The team’s 2021 lottery pick, guard Corey Kispert, has a faster release on three-pointers and is driving more often while being more aggressive getting to the paint. Its 2020 lottery pick, Avdija, has become a more consistent rebounder, which leads to more playmaking opportunities. He is also finishing better through contact at the rim, hence his improved effective field goal percentage.
Winger and Dawkins’s first lottery pick in Washington, rookie wing Bilal Coulibaly, is handling difficult defensive assignments with aplomb while shooting better than expected, especially from beyond the arc. His 38.8 percent shooting from three is fourth among all rookies with at least 100 attempts.
Unseld said the 19-year-old’s biggest area of growth is his ability to defend different types of players from night to night.
“Adapting and being moldable to playing different spots defensively but also moving off the ball,” Unseld said. “… We’re very positionless in what we do, but it does take a cerebral feel to navigate a lot of that. He’s done a very good job of figuring that out, sometimes on the fly.”
Looking ahead
Defensive effort must be a top priority in the second half of the season. Even if the Wizards aren’t concerned with wins and losses, they are trying to build a foundation on good basketball habits. The inconsistent level of defensive energy won’t serve anyone going forward.
Unseld zoomed out even further and said general consistency is his biggest focus for the rest of the season.
“Can we still play fast? Can we prioritize our shot diet? Can we still take care of the ball? Simple,” Unseld said. “Defensively, it’s like going back to that foundation. Can we still be in our shrink spots? Can we still close with a high hand? Can we still do some of the things we’re trying to do as we’re trying to integrate new guys or however it may fold out?”
If it sounds as if Washington is setting the most basic of goals, take that as evidence of how early it is in the rebuilding process. The Wizards may already be halfway through this season, but in the bigger picture, they’re just getting started.