NBA midseason awards: Has Chet Holmgren overtaken Victor Wembanyama?

The fourth consecutive year of MVP debates involving Jokic and Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid received a jolt Tuesday, when the 76ers center drew first blood by scoring 41 points in a 126-121 home win over Jokic’s Nuggets. Embiid is leading the NBA in scoring for the third straight season, and his 76ers remain near the top of the standings despite their bitter divorce from James Harden in October.

Nevertheless, Jokic (25.7 points, 11.9 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game) earned top billing on this ballot: The two-time MVP is again flirting with averaging a triple-double while leading the NBA in a host of advanced metrics, such as win shares, real plus-minus and value over replacement. There has been no hangover following his 2023 championship and Finals MVP award; on the contrary, Jokic’s scoring workload has increased because of the nearly month-long injury absence of Denver guard Jamal Murray.

Jokic’s deliberate style sometimes makes it feel as if he is pacing himself, but he has missed just one game and has proved capable of orchestrating wins whether he is putting up 29 shots to take apart the San Antonio Spurs in November or shooting just three in a blowout of the Detroit Pistons this month. Availability looms as a clear differentiator between Jokic and Embiid, who has already missed 10 games this season and may not be eligible for MVP selection given the league’s new requirement that candidates play in at least 65 games.

At the moment, Jokic’s top MVP competition is Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 6.3 apg), who has raised his game again after finishing fifth last season. The 25-year-old Canadian not only captains a top-five offense with his pretty isolation scoring and drive-and-kick passing, but he leads the NBA in steals on a pesky defense that punches well above its weight. Oddsmakers pegged the rising Thunder (28-13) for 44½ wins — a healthy bump from last season’s 40-42 record — yet Gilgeous-Alexander somehow has his team on pace for 56, which would be Oklahoma City’s best showing since Kevin Durant’s 2013-14 MVP season.

Milwaukee forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Boston forward Jayson Tatum and Embiid fill out the top five. Tatum is back with another ho-hum year of excellence for the Celtics, who rank first in winning percentage and net rating, while Antetokounmpo continues to post numbers that rival Embiid’s while carrying the new-look Bucks through some early-season choppiness.

Though charismatic scoring guard Anthony Edwards has emerged as the face of the Timberwolves, stingy defense has Minnesota (30-11) sitting atop the Western Conference and on track for the best season in franchise history. Gobert (13.4 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 2.2 blocks), a three-time defensive player of the year, has reemerged as the backbone of the Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense after his impact slipped noticeably last season.

Gobert, who arrived in Minnesota via a polarizing 2022 trade with the Utah Jazz, has plenty of assistance on a roster that blends savvy veterans with excellent young athletes such as Edwards and Jaden McDaniels. Even so, the 7-foot-1 Frenchman ranks first in the league in defensive rating and defensive win shares and is tied for fifth in defensive real plus-minus. His resurgence as a shot-blocker is notable given that he is 31 and had seemed headed for age-related decline. Minnesota’s approach of playing Gobert with fellow big man Karl-Anthony Towns will be tested in the playoffs, but Gobert has played like the game-changing force the Timberwolves thought they were acquiring when they sent all those draft picks to the Jazz. Better one year late than never, especially when Gobert is earning $41 million this season.

Kudos also to Anthony Davis, who is producing his best all-around season since joining the Los Angeles Lakers, and Orlando Magic guard Jalen Suggs, who is simply tenacious.

Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft who missed all of last season with a foot injury, and San Antonio Spurs big man Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in 2023, are neck-and-neck in the fiercest rookie of the year race in recent memory. While Scottie Barnes narrowly beat Evan Mobley two years ago in the closest race of the past 20 years, Holmgren and Wembanyama have already established themselves as all-star candidates and project as higher-ceiling players than anyone from the 2022 class. With nearly three months to go, this is shaping up to be the most compelling and weightiest rookie debate since LeBron James held off Carmelo Anthony in 2003-04.

The 7-4 Wembanyama (19.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 3.1 bpg) boasts slightly gaudier individual numbers, but the 7-1 Holmgren (17.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.5 bpg) deserves the nod because he has played 23 percent more minutes and — most importantly — all of his games have had playoff stakes. Holmgren isn’t just along for the ride in Oklahoma City: The long-armed shot-blocker has anchored a sixth-ranked defense and stepped in as an ultraefficient secondary scoring option for a well-oiled attack.

“[Holmgren’s] rim protection distracts people from his switchability and mobility on defense,” Thunder Coach Mark Daigneault said this week. “He can go step for step with people. It makes him a very rangy defender because he can guard out on the water on the perimeter and is a great rim player as well. It gives us a lot of options.”

It’s no fun to penalize Wembanyama for his poor supporting cast, nor is it fair to reward Holmgren solely for his team’s success. If Holmgren and Wembanyama switched places, there’s a strong argument that Oklahoma City would be even better and San Antonio would be worse. Even so, reality should take precedence over hypotheticals as long as both players deliver similar box score numbers.

Voters should keep an open mind until April, especially if Wembanyama can shake free from his minutes limit and go on a tear down the stretch. Miami Heat forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II deserve honorable mention in this two-horse race.

A lot would have to go wrong for Maxey to lose his stranglehold on this award, which he had seemingly wrapped up by Thanksgiving. Philadelphia has long been in desperate need of a feel-good story, and Maxey (26.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 6.6 apg) has played so well during his breakout campaign that memories of the ill-fated Ben Simmons and Harden eras have faded away.

Maxey brings a lot to the table: speed, scoring instincts, a reliable jumper and overflowing amounts of positive energy. Philadelphia Coach Nick Nurse has milked every last drop from Maxey’s contract-year push, playing the fourth-year guard a league-high 37.5 minutes as he closes in on a maximum rookie contract extension. The 23-year-old guard has kicked up Philadelphia’s pace from last season and formed a more natural partnership with Embiid to power a top-five offense, which should lead to his first all-star appearance next month.

Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun (21.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 4.9 apg) is running a distant second, with Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson also in the trail pack. Sengun, a dynamic scoring and passing big man, would have a stronger case if the upstart Rockets could work their way back into the playoff mix.

As high-volume scoring guards with starter-level talent, Dallas’s Tim Hardaway Jr., Sacramento’s Malik Monk, Indiana’s Bennedict Mathurin and Atlanta’s Bogdan Bogdanovic are conventionally strong candidates. Nevertheless, Reid (12.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) embodies what this award should be about: sacrifice for the betterment of a winning team.

The 24-year-old big man, who went undrafted out of LSU in 2019, re-signed with Minnesota last summer despite a crowded frontcourt rotation that includes Gobert and Towns. Making the most of his narrow opportunity, Reid has married his signature hustle plays and physicality with an increasingly efficient scoring game. If Reid can fight through this season’s deep pack of backcourt bucket-getters, he would join Montrezl Harrell in 2020 as the only big men to win this award in the past decade.

With all due to respect to Boston’s Joe Mazzulla, who has done well with the NBA’s most loaded roster, the early coach of the year favorites come from the top teams in the Western Conference: Minnesota’s Chris Finch and Oklahoma City’s Daigneault.

Finch entered the season with a warm seat following an underwhelming 2022-23 campaign and quickly set about providing strong answers to Minnesota’s major lineup fit questions. There’s plenty to like about his work: Edwards has thrived as an alpha scorer, a healthy Towns has accepted a complementary role, and veterans such as Gobert and Mike Conley have exceeded expectations. Given Minnesota’s stable defense and strong home record, Finch should enjoy real staying power in this race as the Timberwolves eye their first playoff series victory since 2004.

For now, though, Daigneault has positioned the Thunder as the league’s biggest overachiever. Just two years ago, Oklahoma City won 24 games and seemed destined for an excruciating rebuilding process. Now, Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and 2023 rookie of the year runner-up Jalen Williams have Thunder fans salivating over the possibility of a deep postseason run, a la Durant’s push to the 2011 Western Conference finals at 22. Daigneault’s culture of hard work, internal development and unselfish play has produced a young team that is a joy to watch on both ends: Oklahoma City makes the extra pass, shoots the three well, scraps after offensive rebounds and forces turnovers with a pestering defensive style.